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Analysts’ recommendations regarding PZU’s shares

Annual Report 2019 > Analysts’ recommendations regarding PZU’s shares
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In 2019, PZU stock recommendations were issued by 12 domestic and international financial institutions. In total, sell side analysts published 28 recommendations.

Statistics related to the recommendations published in 2019

In 2019 “buy” and “hold” recommendations were prevalent. One “sell” recommendation was issued in January. In September it was revised to “hold”. At year end, there were 5 “buy” and 7 “hold” recommendations.

The median target price in the recommendations valid as at 31 December 2019 was PLN 43.4, down 12.3% y/y (the decline would be 6.7% y/y after adjusting for the cut-off of the dividend in September 2019). The average target price was 10.2% higher than the share price at the end of 2019 (at the end of 2018 the deviation was 11.4%).

Price variance of the recommendation in 2019

 

  31 December 2018 31 December 2019 change Price variance between the recommendations
and the share price at the end of 2019 (PLN 40.0)
Highest target price 54.0 53.0 -1.9% 32.4%
Median of the target prices 49.5 43.4 -12.3% 8.4%
Average of the target prices 48.9 44.1 -9.8% 10.2%
Lowest target price 43.0 38.0 -11.6% -5.1%

Source: PZU data

Analysts’ expectations concerning PZU’s share price in 2019 based on recommendations in effect at the end of December 2019

Source: PZU data

In 2019 PZU’s average target share price according to analysts was PLN 45. The largest difference between the average target price and the PZU’s actual share price was observed in Q3 2019 when the recommended price was as much as 22% higher than PZU’s actual share price. The smallest difference (0.78%) was observed in June 2019. At the end of 2019 the gap was 10%, i.e. it was at a comparable level to the gap seen at the same time in 2018. At the end of December 2019 the PZU share price was PLN 40.03, while the average price from these recommendations was PLN 44.20. In the full year of 2019 the average target price determined by analysts was on average 13% higher than PZU’s market price.

Institutions issuing recommendations for PZU’s stock (as at 31 December 2019)

Institution Analyst Contact details
Citi Andrzej Powierża +48 22,690 35 66
andrzej.powierza@citi.com
Haitong Marta Czajkowska-Bałydga +48 22,347 40 48
marta.czajkowska-baldyga@haitongib.com
HSBC Thomas Fossard +33 1 56 52 43 40
thomas.fossard@hsbc.com
Ipopema Łukasz Jańczak +48 22,236 92 30
lukasz.janczak@ipopema.pl
JP Morgan Michał Kużawiński +48 22,441 95 34
michal.kuzawinski@jpmorgan.com
mBank Michał Konarski +48 22,697 47 37
michal.konarski@mdm.pl
PKO BP Jaromir Szortyka +48 22,580 39 47
jaromir.szortyka@pkobp.pl
Raiffeisen Centrobank Jovan Sikimic +43 15,152 07 13
Jovan.Sikimic@rcb.at
Trigon Maciej Marcinowski +48 22,433 83 75 
maciej.marcinowski@trigon.pl
UBS Michał Potyra +27 11 322 7320
michal.potyra@ubs.com
Wood & Company Marta Jeżewska-Wasilewska +48 22,525 84 30
marta.jezewska-wasilewska@wood.com